Indian dairy product is becoming viable in world market once again. Global milk powder price has hit a 15-month high in November’ 2009 – making domestic products exportable. High global price has become a dampener for import of milk powder making domestic industry outlook that much positive.
Fonterra - largest milk processor in the world – maintains an Internet based sales platform called Global Daily Trade. As per Global Daily Trade - average price of Whole Milk Powder (WMP) is USD 3437 per MT ex New Zealand ports for current month. This is the highest since August’ 2008 when WMP price stood at USD 3705 per MT. Ironically, WMP price was a paltry USD 1829 during March – June’ 2009. Increasing demand from global food processors is the main reason for such high price and is expected to remain firm as world economy recovers from recession through 2009-10.
Another reason for such stiff jump in global prices is general decline in milk production in Western Europe, Australia and the USA where farmers reduced herd sizes because of falling milk prices.
Above all, the European Commission has scaled down export subsidies . For example, the refund on skimmed milk powder (SMP) shipment has been slashed down to zero from Euro 228 per MT. Similarly, refund for WMP came down to Euro 175 from 350 and that of butter oil reduced to Euro 456 from Euro 787.
Indian Dairy Industry Outlook Positive
Increasing global price and declining production makes Indian dairy industry outlook positive. On one hand, industry feels safe from large scale import, as has been happening throughout 2008. On the other hand, high global price has made Indian dairy products viable for export.
Import is Virtually Ruled Out
During 2009 – Indian imported 20,000 MT of Butter Oil at an average price of USD 1700 to 1800 per MT. Today, the same Butter Oil from New Zealand is quoting at over USD 4700 per MT ! Add 30 per cent import duty and other expenses – the final price will be much higher than ex-factory ghee price, which is currently Rs. 240-270 a Kg.
Same story for milk powder – during July’ 2009, SMP price from East Europe was USD 1800 – USD 1900 per MT. Today, it costs at least USD 1000 more per MT and is likely to scale even higher.
Export Is Viable Now
Export of Indian dairy product has already started. During Aug – Oct’ 2009, over 3000 MT casein has been exported. Apart from Exporters, Indian farmers are getting good price for milk even during winter when traditionally milk prices fall.
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